The Pentagon's latest display.

In the midst of election obsession, an important unfolding of events is getting away without much public scrutiny.  

The old guard neocon advisers do not miss one beat.  When I heard that a failed US spy satellite, launched just over a year ago, was due for an uncontrolled re-entry, my first thought was, "Another billion taxpayer dollars down the drain."  I did _not_ think, "Oh no, I hope it doesn't hit anyone!"  Space junk, including defunct satellites, de-orbits regularly and burns up in the atmosphere.   In this case, the fact that so much fuel is still on board only makes it more likely that the thing will blow itself up into tiny little pieces before it lands in some random remote area of the planet.  You are more likely to win the Powerball Jackpot hundreds of times before a chunk of satellite lands in your yard.  However, the fact that this non-story was being given significant air-time on CNN gave me pause.  Eventually the little wheels in my head had turned enough that I wondered how long it would take someone to notice that this was the perfect opportunity to show China that "We Can Do That, Too!", by shooting it down.  Like naughty children, predictable to the end, a Pentagon request to do exactly that was approved by the White House today.  And that naughty predictability includes pretending to hide our real motives, by clothing this extraordinary action in weak and unscientific excuses about the vanishingly miniscule danger to populated areas.  

My belief now is that this entire episode has likely been in the works since shortly after China shot down one of *their* defunct satellites.  Why do I think this?  Well, it's been known for a year that this US satellite was coming down, and we could have heard months ago if it was a real threat to humanity.  Furthermore, given the frequency with which space missions go awry, it is a little far-fetched to think that the Pentagon is only now suddenly concerned about the toxic rocket fuel on board.  It is also clear from the information released to the press that this little project has been on the table for a while, with analyses of how much debris would be produced, how this would affect ISS and the shuttle, how many chances they'll get to hit the target, etc.  The sudden promotion of this story right before re-entry, the creation of an utterly farcical picture of a "multi-ton" satellite filled with "deathly toxic chemicals" crashing to the ground (complete with references to the Bruce Willis film "Armageddon"), and the huge production about shooting it down--all point to a long-rehearsed screenplay.  What a display of American power:  China tries so hard to look scary, and meanwhile we can just shoot down spy satellites on the spur of the moment if we feel like it (yawn).  Aside from the irritation this causes other countries who see the pony show for what it is, I can't help thinking that other extraordinary displays of military power haven't been working out that well for us lately.  What an embarrassment it would be if we missed.

[UPDATE:  We did not miss.  The spycam was successfully blown to smithereens, and now we hope the international fallout will have minimal impact, as well.]